Confidence remains high that an El Nino event will develop during the Australian Spring and persist into summer, with all climate indicators continuing to show a trend towards El Nino conditions. Eastern and central tropical Pacific waters have continued to warm over the past months, while the easterly trade winds weaken across the tropical Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) index is trending towards El Nino values. The SOI has fallen below -10 during the past week, the lowest value in more than two years. To meet El Nino classification the SOI must remain below -10 for three consecutive months. During an El Nino event large parts of the nation typically see below average rainfall, with the greatest affects occurring during spring and summer. As a result, climate models are consistently indicating that central, eastern and southern Australia will see near to below average rainfall during this spring and summer. Warm sea surface temperatures over the southern Indian Ocean (outside the IOD region) may provide high moisture levels over southwestern Australia during this spring and summer. In turn, climate models indicate that rainfall will remain near average over this region.
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